Geographisches Kolloquium am 17.1.2018

Climate change as a threat to societal stability? From violent conflicts to hot-spots of change at 1.5°C warming

Dr. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Head of Climate Science and Impacts and a Scientific Advisor to Climate Analytics)

As the impacts of anthropogenic climate change become ever more evident and wide-spread, risks posed to societal stability and sustainable development are moving into the focus of researchers and the interested public alike.  In my colloquium talk, I want to shed some light on two aspects related to such risks: the linkage between armed conflicts and climate-related natural disasters and hot-spots of climate change at 1.5°C warming.

Armed conflicts are the result of a highly context-specific mixture of a variety of socio-economic factors and their multiple causality structure, which renders the attribution of armed conflicts to single factors a practically impossible task. I will present evidence that climate-related extreme damage events, while not directly causing armed conflicts, can indeed significantly contribute to conflict risk in environmentally vulnerable and conflict-prone regions and possibly trigger the timing of conflict outbreaks. Given the still high number of countries at risk and the observed and projected increase in severe climate extremes, this relation represents a serious risk to societies globally.

In the second part of my presentation differential climate impacts at 1.5°C linked to the upcoming special report on 1.5°C of the IPCC will be discussed covering extreme weather events, sectorial impacts for the water and agriculture sector as well as sea level rise. Hot spots of change will be identified and implications for societal stability will be discussed.

Selected References:

Schleussner C-F, et al. 2017 In the observational record half a degree matters Nat. Clim. Chang. 7 460–2

Schleussner C-F, et al. 2016 Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal Nat. Clim. Chang. 6 827–835

Schleussner C-F, et al. 2016 Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 113 9216–21

Datum: Mittwoch, 17.1.2018

Ort: GW2 B1150

Uhrzeit: 16:15 Uhr

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